AI Football Prediction Methodology
TikiScore's predictions are not a black box. Below is the full algorithm — Poisson model, multi-bookmaker margin-free consensus, post-match Brier self-calibration — along with public backtest records over 13061 matches.
Hybrid Architecture
Computes attack/defense coefficients per team from the last 2 years of matches, derives expected goals λ for home/away, then enumerates score combinations via Poisson to derive 1X2 and over/under probabilities.
Aggregates live European odds from 10+ bookmakers, removes overround (margin), takes the weighted median as market implied probability. The market is driven by huge bets and is academically acknowledged as highly efficient short-term.
Weighted 60% market + 40% Poisson. Weights are dynamically tunable in the admin backend. Market weight is higher because odds reflect live info (injuries, lineup, weather).
Powered by a large language model for natural-language analysis. The LLM only explains probabilities — never invents numbers — to avoid hallucination. Guardrails scan for banned absolutes, hallucinated team names, and fake scorelines.
After each match, actual results are auto-backfilled + Brier Score computed + hit/miss judged + entered into the next few-shot pool. Historical Brier is publicly viewable.
What is Brier Score
Brier Score measures the squared error between probability predictions and actual outcomes. Formula:BS = (1/N) · Σ (p - o)², where p is the predicted probability and o is the actual outcome (1 or 0).
- 0.00 — Perfect prediction (impossible)
- 0.18-0.20 — Professional quant model level
- 0.22 — Pure market-implied baseline
- 0.25 — Random 33.3% baseline
- > 0.30 — Model has failed
Data Transparency Commitment
✓ Probabilities, actual results and Brier values of every AI prediction are permanently publicly archived — backfill modifications are forbidden.
✓ 7-day / 30-day hit rate + Brier trends are shown live at /predictions.
✓ Every match's analysis is traceable at /ai-analysis with probability bars + interpretation + backtest results.
✓ Model version, prompt templates, and few-shot pool are open to internal audit.
Disclaimer
AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical models for fan discussion only — they are not betting advice. Probability predictions express long-run expectation and do not guarantee single-match outcomes. Watch responsibly — say no to gambling.